Bump, set, spike

Santa Monica mounted a sustained, publicly transparent campaign to challenge what LA28 was offering. And, in the end, that's probably what sent the organizing committee packing for other shores

Val Kilmer as Iceman in the iconic beach volleyball scene from Top Gun spinning a volleyball on his finger
The boys of LA28 are taking their volleyball to a different beach. (RIP Val Kilmer)

The opening ceremonies are still three years away but the most closely watched back-and-forth associated with the 2028 games is officially over. After two years of negotiations, LA28 has ended formal talks with Santa Monica to be the beach volleyball venue. According to a Santa Monica release, LA28 informed city officials on Friday that beach volleyball will be played elsewhere. Exactly where, we don't know quite yet.

"There is no better place to host the Olympic beach volleyball competition than Santa Monica, where the sport was born. We would have loved to be a venue city in 2028," said Santa Monica Mayor Lana Negrete. "While we're disappointed that an agreement was not realized, we remain eager to share in the excitement the Olympics will bring to our region and are looking forward to being a regional partner in this historic event."

The up-in-the-air nature of beach volleyball has become the defining narrative of LA's forthcoming megaevent era. By leveraging the city's tremendous bargaining power as a venue with a lot to offer and nothing to lose, Santa Monica's officials were among the only local leaders openly questioning the benefits of hosting and what, exactly, smaller LA County cities were getting in return. As other cities signed opaque contracts behind closed doors, Santa Monica documented the process every step of the way. Sure, LA Councilmember Tim McOsker went on a fiery tirade last week accusing LA28 of making deals with "some backroom and a couple of bros" as he attempted to wrangle sailing back from Long Beach. He's still introducing motions in a last-ditch effort to hold LA28 more accountable. But Santa Monica mounted a sustained, publicly transparent campaign to challenge what LA28 was offering. And, in the end, that's probably what sent the organizing committee packing for other shores.

"It is tough to close this door with LA28," said Santa Monica Councilmember Dan Hall. "However, as a leader who has a fiduciary responsibility to the city and community, we needed the financial backstop guarantee to provide the security, safety, and cleaning services hosting such a massive event would’ve required, especially while we face a financially distressed budgeting cycle."

"I remain proud of the principled and fiscally responsible approach we took throughout this process," said Santa Monica Mayor Pro Tem Caroline Torosis. "Our community deserved a transparent agreement that delivered real benefits and minimized risks — and we stood firm in advocating for that."

A rendering showing a large beach volleyball stadium on the beach by the Santa Monica Pier
What beach volleyball might have looked like in Santa Monica

Like many LA County cities, Santa Monica began discussions with what would become LA28 over a decade ago. Early on, many of those cities, including Santa Monica, signed guarantee letters, agreeing to negotiate with LA28 as the venue plan came together. As the self-described birthplace of beach volleyball, Santa Monica seemed to have this sport on lock. All the city had to do was allow a temporary 12,000-seat stadium to be built just north of the pier.

Yet, as two rounds of venue announcements were made by LA28 last summer — Inglewood, Carson, Long Beach, Temecula, Oklahoma City??? — Santa Monica never made the list, issuing cheery public statements reminding everyone they were still working on a deal.

Behind the scenes, however, three people familiar with the negotiations describe a city growing increasingly frustrated with "intentionally ambiguous" terms presented by the organizing committee. All of them noted that the conversations with LA28 — described as "disappointing," "hot mess," and "a shit show" — were unusually vague compared to other types of city contract negotiations.

As one person told me: "We kept expecting LA28 to step up, and they never did."

According to my sources, it was never "very close"

In October 2024, the Los Angeles Times ran a story with a headline that said the city was "very close" to signing an agreement. The actual quote, from the former city manager, was that the city was "very close to addressing all the outstanding issues." As it turns out, there were still many outstanding issues to address. And what Santa Monica did next probably didn't endear them to LA28.

With an economic impact report in hand which warned of potential financial risk — "choosing to host Olympic beach volleyball translates to a net loss of roughly $12.1 million," the study concludes — the council held a public study session to allow both constituents and elected officials to think out loud about the pros and cons. Ultimately, the city council opted to continue negotiations, directing the staff to more clearly define the benefits to local residents and businesses. (LA, as the host city, gets $160 million from LA28 for youth sports, but there's no similar investment for other venue cities.) But in some ways, the writing was already on the wall. The following month, a slate of progressive councilmembers were elected to the city's council, unseating some of the more vocal beach volleyball fans.

Just looking at what other LA-area cities have signed onto, it's clear why Santa Monica had reservations. Long Beach's agreement, for example, describes "clean zones" — kind of a terrifying term? — as one-mile square perimeters around every venue from June to September. These perimeters are not necessarily a surprise, it's why we're hosting a "car-free" games. But this agreement describes an urban environment that's effectively a blank slate; no advertising, no signage, no street vendors. And if you consider how much of Santa Monica might need to be delivered "clean" under a similar agreement, that zone would encompass almost the entire downtown. I get why Long Beach would want to make sacrifices to go big — and their capital planning reflects this choice — because their officials are hoping that 2028 puts them on the map. Santa Monica is already on the map.

Regardless of whether Santa Monica hosts volleyball events on its Pier-adjacent beach, the City should expect a significant increase in visitation in July 2028. In fact, based on HR&A’s analysis, in either scenario, with the number of available hotel rooms and short-term rental options and typical Olympic travel patterns, Santa Monica’s overnight accommodations will reach maximum capacity. If overnight accommodations are at maximum capacity in each scenario, this means that the fiscal benefits from overnight visitors are effectively maximized regardless of whether Santa Monica hosts beach volleyball or not. Projections for visitation are detailed in Figure 1 below. Figure 1: Estimated Visitation Summary During Olympic Events – Event vs. Non-Event Scenario1 Scenario Daytrip Visitors Overnight Visitors Total Visitors Event 642,000 59,0002 701,000 Non-Event 245,000 53,0002 298,000 Based on this visitation, along with historic visitor spending patterns in Santa Monica, HR&A prepared fiscal impact projections for two scenarios. Summarized in Figure 2 below, the City is projected to incur a net fiscal cost of approximately $1.45 million if it hosts Olympic beach volleyball. Meanwhile, in the Non-Event Scenario, the City stands to receive significant net fiscal benefits, totaling approximately $10.65 million, from increased visitation, with much lower City costs. Taken together, these findings suggest that choosing to host Olympic beach volleyball translates to a net loss of roughly $12.10 million to the City.3 These estimates also include longer-term revenues and costs from beach and parking rentals and parking revenue reimbursement, co
Cost analysis for hosting beach volleyball, per the HR&A Advisors report

But the biggest sticking point, according to those familiar with the negotiations, was that LA28 could not guarantee the pier would stay open to the public. That would mean the city, as the pier's landlord, would have had to assume the extraordinarily bad optics of temporarily displacing roughly 20 small businesses. These businesses also pay rent to the city along with a cut of their revenue. Which means when Bubba Gump can't sell a summer's worth of Lieutenant Dan's Pork Ribs and Shrimp combos, the city suffers twice over. "Today we host 8 million visitors a year," says Carter Rubin, board chair of the Santa Monica Pier Corporation. "When the Games arrive in 2028, we're excited that the Pier will be a place where people can find community in one of our region's iconic public spaces."

As Paris's Eiffel Tower-adjacent courts demonstrated, beach volleyball could be played literally anywhere. But there are other beaches at the ready: Long Beach, Huntington Beach, Manhattan Beach. I'm sure LA Councilmember Traci Park, California's #1 beach volleyball fan, is gunning for Venice Beach. I reached out to LA28 for a statement and will update if they respond, but I wouldn't be surprised if this is one of the venues that's not presented to the IOC tomorrow along with the other outstanding sports.

And what about Santa Monica? Santa Monica will be fine. During the summer of 2028, people will happily ride the E to the end of the line, stroll that delightful boardwalk to the pier, and buy lots of Lieutenant Dan's Pork Ribs and Shrimp combos — no matter what's happening on the sand below. The hospitality houses — where countries set up activations for athletes and fans — are already flocking to smaller LA cities like West Hollywood and Culver City; Santa Monica is a particularly desirable location to set up shop. And these types of engagements have the potential to deliver guaranteed city revenue and actual legacy improvements. At this point, negotiating with an entirely different country could be more lucrative for Santa Monica than negotiating with the organizing committee in their own backyard. 🔥

🙋🏼‍♀️ Boycotts. Visas. Manufacturing 2,700 electric buses. These are things you might have some questions about at this very moment. I highly suggest perusing my week of events scheduled to commemorate Torched's first anniversary April 21-25 where I'll be talking to many experts about LA's megaevent preparations. Or lack thereof

🏟️ Meanwhile the deadline for LA28 to present its final plan to the IOC is tomorrow and there are so many sports that still don't have venues: baseball, cricket, surfing, squash, boxing, cycling, just to name a few. And what about sailing? It's going to be a wild day

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